000 AXNT20 KNHC 031159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes SW from Sierra Leone on the African Coast near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within an are bounded by a line from 02N14W to 05S27W to 03N47W to 06N27W to 02N14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary frontal boundary weaves over the NW Gulf from 1014 low pres cover SE Louisiana near 30N90W to 29N93.5W to 1012 low pres centered E of Corpus Christi Texas near 27N94W to just S of Tampico Mexico near 21N97.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana N of 28N between 92W and 95W. A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the current frontal boundary eastward starting this afternoon. The front will extend from Mobile AL to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec tonight, from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Friday night, then sweep to the SE of the Gulf of Mexico Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night and Friday. Winds and seas will diminish Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds over the Gulf and to the west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of an old stationary front passes from the Atlantic Ocean across Guadeloupe to 18N68W. Broken low level clouds and light rainshowers are found along and up to 60 nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, deep-layer high pressure is restricting deep convection over the basin. The gale force winds along the coast of Colombia have decreased to just below gale force. Surface high pressure to the north of the area has been maintaining persistent gale force winds over the south central Caribbean Sea during the last several days, particularly at night. The wind speeds will continue to diminish during the next few days as the high pressure to the N is weakened further by low pres moving E over the western Atlantic. Strong winds can still be expected along the coast of Colombia through the end of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves SW from 32N30W, to 20N40W to 17N53W to Guadalupe in the Leeward islands. Broad high pres ridging NE from Hispaniola to near 32N59W is inhibiting convection in the vicinity of this boundary. Broad surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will weaken and shift eastward through Friday. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Friday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to Cuba Saturday night, then stall and weaken along 23N on Sunday and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy