000 AXNT20 KNHC 030512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1212 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE NE WINDS will persist off the coast of Colombia into Thursday morning, from 11N to 14N between 73W and 77W. Surface high pressure to the north of the area has been supporting persistent GALE-FORCE winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the last several days, particularly at night with an added component of localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia. The wind speeds will diminish later in the week as the high pressure weakens. Please read the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W and 01N39W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 05N between 21W and 24W, and from 03N to 04N between 25W and 29W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N southward between 30W and 41W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 28N94W off the Upper Texas Gulf coast. A warm front extends from the low pressure center northeastward into the south central Louisiana Gulf coast. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, to the coast of Mexico from 21N/22N along 97W/98W. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 19N95W. Reinforcing cold air will push the current cold front eastward on Thursday afternoon. The front will extend from Mobile AL to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec on Thursday night, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Friday night, then sweep SE of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night and Friday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish on Friday night and Saturday, as high pressure builds to the west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front passes through 16N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Guadeloupe (0.20 inches of rain during the last 24 hours), to 18N68W. Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north of 15N between 60W and 73W. Other possible rainshowers are from 75W westward, in areas of clouds that are moving westward. Broad surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean Sea through Friday, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight and morning hours. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish later in the week, as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N30W, to 26N35W 20N40W 17N50W and 16N60W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 22N northward between 28W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 500 nm to the northwest of the front. Broad surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will weaken and shift eastward through Friday. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on Friday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to Cuba on Saturday night, then stall and weaken along 23N on Sunday and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT