000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through early Thursday. High pressure north of the area has been supporting persistent gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the past several days, particularly at night with an added component of localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia. These winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure weakens. Please read the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N30W, 02N40W, to the Equator along 48W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 04N between 22W and 27W, and from 02N to 04N between 32W and 39W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 34W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to the NW Gulf near 28N94W to NE Mexico near 26N97W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front along the Texas coast. A north to south surface trough is over the W Gulf from 26N96W to 22N96W to 19N95W. Distinct wind directions are on both sides of the trough. The remainder of the E Gulf has mostly 10-15 kt SE winds with fair weather. The current stationary front will drift NW through tonight, then will move eastward as a cold front on Thursday. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Paraiso Mexico on Friday morning, before sweeping southeastward of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching near gale force off the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Friday. Winds and seas will diminish from late Friday through Saturday, as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in Colombia, are maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean, with winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer passes have been showing this, and concurrent altimeter satellite passes along with various buoy data have been showing 12 to 16 ft seas over the area of strong winds and gales in the south central and southwest Caribbean, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds have been pushing into the northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Generally moderate E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the far northeast Caribbean. Caribbean radar mosaics have been showing a few fast- moving trade wind showers mainly over the Leeward Islands N of 15N and E of 67W. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in Colombia, will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean Sea through Friday, with gale force winds pulsing off Colombia through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through late week, as the high pressure weakens and shifts east ahead of a cold front, that will move into the far NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday, then stall and weaken through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N68W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N38W to 20N41W. A stationary front continues to 17N50W to 17N60W. A prefrontal trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N33W to 18N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 21N-31N between 30W-38W. A surface ridge along 28N will shift eastward through Friday, ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida late on Friday. The front will move eastward, and reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by early Sunday, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ al/mrf/mt