000 AXNT20 KNHC 021729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through early Thu. High pressure north of the area has been supporting persistent gales over the south central Caribbean for the past several days, particularly at night with an added component of localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia. These winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure weakens. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W to 04N20W to 02N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 18W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 33W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to the NW Gulf near 28N94W to NE Mexico near 26N97W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front along the Texas coast. A north to south surface trough is over the W Gulf from 26N96W to 22N96W to 19N95W. Distinct wind directions are on both sides of the trough. The remainder of the E Gulf has mostly 10-15 kt SE winds with fair weather. The quasi-stationary front will drift NW through tonight, then will move east as a cold front Thu, reaching from the Florida panhandle to Paraiso Mexico Fri morning before sweeping southeast of the Gulf Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf, possibly reaching near gale force off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Fri. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the central Atlc and lower pressure over Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean, with winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer passes have been showing this, and concurrent altimeter satellite passes along with various buoy data have been showing 12 to 16 ft seas over the area of strong winds and gales in the south central and southwest Caribbean, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds have been pushing into the northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Generally moderate E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the far northeast Caribbean. Caribbean radar mosaics have been showing a few fast-moving trade wind showers mainly over the Leeward Islands N of 15N and E of 67W. Expect fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean through mid week with gale force winds pulsing off Colombia. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through late week as the high pressure weakens and shifts east ahead of a cold front that will move into the far NW Caribbean Sat, then stall and weaken Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N68W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N38W to 20N41W. A stationary front continues to 17N50W to 17N60W. A prefrontal trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N33W to 18N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 21N-31N between 30W-38W. Over the W Atlantic, ridging along 28N will shift east through Fri ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida late Fri. The front will move east and reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by early Sun, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N through late Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa