000 AXNT20 KNHC 021048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 548 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through early Thu. High pressure north of the area has been supporting persistent gales over the south central Caribbean for the past several days, particularly at night with an added component of localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia. These winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure weakens. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 15W and 25W, and from 05N to 08N between 35W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southeast Louisiana to the mouth of the Rio Grande. Buoy, platform, and scatterometer data show fresh NE winds along the Texas coast west of the front, but generally moderate E to SE winds elsewhere across the northwest Gulf. A few showers may be active across the northwest Gulf as well, but no significant showers, thunderstorms or fog is noted elsewhere. Fresh E winds are also noted in the Straits of Florida, but generally light to gentle E to SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf. For the forecast, an upper disturbance will move from the southern Rockies into the Southern Plains through tonight. This will energize the stationary front, which will will move east as a cold front Thu and reach from Pensacola Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico by early Fri. then sweep southeast of the Gulf Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf, possibly reaching minimal gale force off the coast of Veracruz Mexico Fri. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri through Sat as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. SE return flow will start to increase over the northwest Gulf by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the central Atlc and lower pressure over Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean, with winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer passes have been showing this, and concurrent altimeter satellite passes along with various buoy data have been showing 12 to 16 ft seas over the area of strong winds and gales in the south central and southwest Caribbean, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds have been pushing into the northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Generally moderate E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the far northeast Caribbean. E swell reaching 8 ft has been propagating into the waters east of the Windward Islands, but a recent altimeter pass indicates this may be subsiding. Caribbean radar mosaics have been showing a few fast-moving trade wind showers mainly over the eastern Caribbean, but otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish slightly through late week as the high pressure weakens and shifts ahead of a cold front moving into the far NW Caribbean Sat, before stalling and weakening Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, a ridge along 28N is maintaining generally light to gentle breezes north of 25N with 3 to 5 ft, and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. Fresh to strong winds continue to pulse off the north coast of Haiti, to include the approaches to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the ridging along 28N will shift east through Fri ahead of cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida late Fri. The front move east and reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by early Sun, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N through late Sun. East of 55W, a prominent mid/upper trough reaches from 32N38W to across the Windward Islands. At the surface, this is supporting a cold front reaching from 30N35W to 18.5N50W to the Leeward Islands. A few thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the front from 20N to 25N, near the colder, more unstable core of the mid/upper trough. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong southerly winds within 240 nm east of of the front north of 25N. A reinforcing front may about to merge with the first front, and the merged front will continue to move eastward into the eastern Atlc through Fri. Long period NW swell is following the fronts, and various altimeter satellite passes having been indicated 8 to 12 ft seas mainly north of 25N. Farther south, the same altimeter passes have been showing 7 to 10 ft seas south of 13N, likely in a mix of NW and shorter period NE trade wind swell. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen