000 AXNT20 KNHC 311747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the week. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning hours through mid week. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 04N07W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between 00W-05W, and from 00N-07N between 10W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. 20 kt winds are on both sides of the front. Platforms across the NW Gulf are reporting areas of fog, with visibilities varying from 3 nm to 5 nm. The front will drift E tonight stalling again from Mobile Bay to Tampico, Mexico late Tue. The front will drift back W over the NW gulf waters on Wed, then move E again as a cold front on Wed night, reaching from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri, and move E of the area on Sat. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop across the western gulf waters late Thu, increasing to minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late Fri. A trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A scatterometer pass confirmed gale force winds off the central coast of Colombia. Seas are at least 10 to 13 ft in the area of gales, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. No significant convection is noted at this time anywhere across the basin. Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the Central Caribbean through Sat, increasing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night through the middle of each morning before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. Locally strong winds expected through the Windward Passage through Wed night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel early Fri, before stalling from central Cuba to northern Belize Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N72W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W to 29N50W to 27N60W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 40W-55W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N23W. a cold front extends S from the low to 32N21W to 27N25W. A stationary front continues to 21N34W. A dissipating stationary front continues further to 14N50W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. The surface high and fronts will move E over the next 48 hours. A cold front will move off the N Florida coast Tue. Another cold front will move off the N Florida coast late Fri accompanied by a strong wind shift to the N of 29N. This second front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Sat night. Fresh to strong trades will continue along the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa