000 AXNT20 KNHC 302359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Sun Dec 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the Central Caribbean through Fri, increasing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia late each night through the middle of each morning, before diminishing. Please read the High Seas forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ starts at the coast of Liberia near 08N13W, and it goes to 05N20W, 02N30W, 02N37W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to 01S46W at the coast of Brazil, to 02S52W in Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward between 10W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N90W to a 1014 mb low near 26N95W to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. Although there is no significant convection associated with the front, dense fog continue to be reported west of the front, over the NW Gulf waters all the way south to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds are also west of the front S of 24N and will prevail through early Mon as the front drift W towards the coast of Texas while weakening. Winds ahead of the stationary front are gentle to moderate from the SE. However, winds are forecast to become locally fresh by early Mon ahead of the next cold front coming off Texas near 0900 UTC. The front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on Tue and stall from the western Florida Panhandle to Veracruz on Tue night through Wed morning. The front will move E again on Wed night reaching a position from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, and move E of the area on Thu night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop across the western gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Tampico on Wed night. These minimal gale conditions will shift S along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the Central Caribbean Sea through Friday, increasing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night through the middle of each morning, before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trade winds are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high centered near 27N60W covers the waters of the SW N Atlc and central Atlc supporting fair weather and light to gentle winds N of 22N W of 43W. South of 22N, the gradient slightly tightens with lower pressure in the Caribbean, thus supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Over the NE waters, a cold front extends from 30N26W to 24N30W to 20N35W where it stalls and starts to dissipate all the way to the central Lesser Antilles. Isolated showers and tstms are within 90 nm east of the front mainly north of of 29N. A surface ridge, that extends from 27N65W to NE Florida, will shift S, allowing a weak cold front to move slowly into the northern waters. The front will stall and dissipate gradually, from 28N65W to 31N74W through Monday night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly wind flow will set up N of the ridge on Tuesday, ahead of a second cold front moving off the N Florida coast early on Wednesday. This second front will be reinforced on Thursday with locally strong southwest wind flow ahead of the front. This second front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ nr/mn/mt