000 AXNT20 KNHC 292355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EST Sat Dec 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of Colombia each night through Tuesday night. The gale winds will cover the area from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W with seas 11 to 17 ft. Winds are forecast to go below gale-force shortly on 29/1800 UTC, and resume again on 30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N00W to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 00W-12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 20W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N88W. A stationary front continues from that point to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to N of Vera Cruz Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the northwest gulf waters north of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The stationary front will weaken with the remnants drifting W and gradually dissipating through Sun night. A cold front will move off the Texas coast around sunrise Mon, reach from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on Tue and from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Wed. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop across the western gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz on Wed night. A trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon through Wed, move W across the SW gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low- topped trade wind showers are quickly moving across the basin. Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the S-Central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia late each night through the middle of each morning before diminishing. Fresh to strong easterly trades forecast elsewhere through early Sun, then moderate to fresh trades expected through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning for the central Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N between 75W-77W. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the W Atlantic W of 75W to include the N Bahamas. A 1030 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N60W. A cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from 32N31W to 25N36W to 18N50W, then stationary to 18N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm E of the front N of 27N. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 24N and E of 27W. Over the W Atlantic, a ridge from 30N60W to central Florida will shift S with fresh to strong trades forecast S of the ridge through early Sun. The ridge will extend E to W along 26N late Sun allowing a weak cold front to move slowly into the northern waters. The front will stall and gradually dissipate from 28N65W to 31N74W through Mon night. Fresh southerly flow will set up N of the ridge on Tue ahead of a second cold front moving off the N Florida coast on Tue night. This second front will begin to stall from 31N74W to Central Florida on Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA