000 AXNT20 KNHC 251737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each night through at least Wednesday night into Thursday morning off the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, with sea heights ranging from 9 to 14 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N23W to 03N36W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 27W-38W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 01N-05N between 01W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from near Tampa Florida to 28.5N89W. A weak warm front continues from 28.5N89W to near Beaumont Texas. Isolated showers are seen north of 28N between 92W-94W. Isolated showers are possible in the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 25N and west of 90W. Surface high pressure over the southeastern United States extends a ridge over the northeastern and central Gulf of Mexico. High pres will prevail across the forecast waters through Wed before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move off the Texas coast Thu. The front will stall and linger across the NW Gulf through Sat before a reinforcing front helps push the front eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize from Cancun to NW Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the coast of Belize from 16N-19N between 86W-90W. A second surface trough extends from near 20N79W to 15N82W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 17N-20N between 80W-83W. A third surface trough is along 68W from the Mona Passage northward into the Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted near Puerto Rico. Strong trade winds will prevail across the S central Caribbean through Sat night, increasing to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia at night, and to possible strong gale force Fri night and Sat night. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed through Sat night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 32N62W to 30N68W to 29N76W and continues as stationary from 29N76W to near Melbourne Florida to Tampa Florida. Isolated showers are possible along and near the cold front. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N38W to 29N45W to 27N52W, then continues as a stationary front from 27N52W to 26N63W to 24N70W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted near the stationary front. A surface trough is along 68W from 24N to the Mona Passage. Isolated showers are noted near Puerto Rico. Another surface trough extends from 26N57W to 22N59W, with isolated showers in the area. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough axis extends from 33N25W to 24N30W to 20N45W and is supporting a surface trough from the Madeira Islands to 28N20W to 21N30W. Scattered showers are north of 30N and east of 25W. A 1023 mb surface high is centered near 28N37W. The weak front extending from 31N66W to 29N76W to central Florida will stall along 28N through tonight, where it will gradually dissipate. High pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen