000 AXNT20 KNHC 251205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each night through at least Wednesday night into Thursday morning off the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, with sea heights ranging from 9 to 14 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 30W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from near Tampa Florida to 28N90W to Beaumont Texas. No significant convection is noted in the area. Although some patchy dense fog is occurring over land along portions of the Texas and western Louisiana coasts, the Gulf of Mexico appears to be free of dense fog. Isolated showers are possible in the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 23N and west of 90W. The warm front will continue to lift N and become diffuse. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate later today, increasing to fresh to strong N of 23N Wed ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move off Texas Thu, stalling and becoming diffuse through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from SE Cuba near 21N78W to 16N81W. The trough is connected to a warm front that extends from eastern Cuba through the central Bahamas and eastward into the Atlantic. A second surface trough is along 86W from 17N to southwestern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 17N-20N from 84W westward. Isolated showers are from 17N-20N between 79W-82W. Some isolated showers are farther east in the Caribbean Sea, including near Puerto Rico. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue in the NW Caribbean through early this morning. Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean through Fri night, increasing to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night, and to possible strong gale force Fri night and Sat night. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed through Sat night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 28N76W and continues as stationary from 28N76W to near Melbourne Florida to Tampa Florida. Isolated showers are possible along and near the cold front. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N41W to 28N50W, and to 26N60W. The front becomes stationary from 26N60W to 24N67W and 24N70W. The front is warm from 24N70W to the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers are noted near the front from 55W westward, including near the central Bahamas. An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper cyclonic circulation center and trough are supporting a surface trough that is from 400 nm or more to the west of Africa, from 20N northward. Rainshowers are possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes through 31N16W 24N23W 17N35W 14N50W 13N60W. The weak cold front extending from 31N69W to the Treasure Coast of Florida is stalling, and will lay down along 28N through tonight, gradually dissipating. Moderate to fresh easterly flow Wed will increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Fri as high pres N of the area strengthens. Winds will diminish thereafter as the next weak cold front drops SE into the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen