000 AXNT20 KNHC 250002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE winds are forecast: for tonight and tomorrow morning/early afternoon of Tuesday, and for the same time period from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning/early afternoon, off the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, and to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02N28W, to 03N35W, crossing the Equator along 40W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 05N to 06N between 30W and 33W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to 28N88W to 28N91W. It continues as a stationary front from 28N91W to 28N95W. It continues as a warm front from 28N95W to a 1022 mb surface low along the coast of Texas near Padre Island. A stationary front extends from the surface low westward across northern Mexico to 26N100W to 30N107W. No significant shower activity is occurring with the frontal boundary. Further southeast, some cumulus clouds are streaming westward just north of the west coast of Cuba to just north of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are possible in that area. The part of the current frontal boundary that is cold is forecast to move slightly southward tonight and become stationary, maybe drift a little southward through Wednesday night. Fresh southeasterly flow will develop over the entire basin Tue and Wed, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed night and Thu in advance of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu morning. Seas are expected to build mainly north of 23N and subside Fri. Seas may reach around 10 ft in the NW Gulf on Thu before they subside. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front. This front is forecast to become stationary from southern Louisiana to northeastern Mexico Thu night and Fri, where it will linger into next weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16.5N-18.5N between 84W-88W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and weak upper-level divergence in the area. Isolated showers are also seen east of Nicaragua. Another surface trough is analyzed from the Windward Passage to 17N77W. Isolated showers are seen near this trough and over eastern Cuba. Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean Sea through Fri night, increasing to minimal gale force along the northwest coast of Colombia at night, and to possible strong gale force Fri night and Sat night. A trough extending from the Windward Passage to 16N78W will weaken as it gradually moves westward across the western Caribbean Sea through Wed. Fresh to locally strong northeast flow will continue in the northwest Caribbean Sea through this evening. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed through Sat night as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the northwest portion of the area near 32N77W and continues to near Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are possibly occurring along and just ahead of the front north of 30N and east of 80W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front enters the area near 32N49W and continues to 28N56W to 26N62W, continuing as a stationary front to 23N72W, continuing as a warm front to 22N77W. Isolated showers are possible within 120 nm of this frontal system. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N67W to 19N68W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. A large eastern Atlantic Ocen mid-upper cyclonic circulation center is near 32N24W. The cyclonic center and associated mid- upper trough are moving northward. These features are supporting a surface trough from 32N23W to 30N24W to 24N28W to 18N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 19W- 24W. East of the upper trough, a band of thick mid and high level clouds with scattered showers is seen within 120 nm of a line extending from 13N29W to 21N16W. This band continues just inland over Western Sahara and Morocco, but is over water again north of 27N, east of 14W. A stationary front extends from near 25N65W to 23N71W, where it becomes a warm front to near 23N78W. The warm front will lift northward through Tue night while weakening. The stationary portion will also weaken through Tue night. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed and Thu as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Seas will build with these winds over most sections of the area. Winds will diminish and seas will subside north of 22N Fri through Sat night as the gradient associated with the high weakens in response to a cold front that approaches from the northwest. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ja/ah/mt