000 AXNT20 KNHC 241722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each night through at least Tuesday night off the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-76W with seas of 9 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N25W to 02N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 07N between 13W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to 28N88W to 28N91W. It continues as a stationary front from 28N91W to 28N95W. It continues as a warm front from 28N95W to a 1022 mb surface low along the coast of Texas near Padre Island. A stationary front extends from the surface low westward across northern Mexico to 26N100W to 30N107W. No significant shower activity is occurring with the frontal boundary. Further southeast, some cumulus clouds are streaming westward just north of the west coast of Cuba to just north of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are possible in that area. The cold front from the Florida Big Bend to 28N91W is forecast to reach from near Tampa to near 28N87W this afternoon and become stationary, possibly drifting a little southward through Wed night. Fresh southeasterly flow will develop over the entire basin Tue and Wed, then increase to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu in advance of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu morning. Seas are expected to build mainly north of 23N and subside Fri. This front is forecast to become stationary from southern Louisiana to northeastern Mexico Thu night and Fri, where it will linger into next weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16.5N-18.5N between 84W-88W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and weak upper-level divergence in the area. Isolated showers are also seen east of Nicaragua. Another surface trough is analyzed from the Windward Passage to 17N77W. Isolated showers are seen near this trough and over eastern Cuba. Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to minimal gale force along the northwest coast of Colombia at night. The trough extending from the Windward Passage to 17N77W will slowly dissipate through this evening. Fresh to locally strong northeast flow will continue in the northwest Caribbean through this evening. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed through Fri as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the northwest portion of the area near 32N77W and continues to near Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are possibly occurring along and just ahead of the front north of 30N and east of 80W. A central Atlantic cold front enters the area near 32N49W and continues to 28N56W to 26N62W, continuing as a stationary front to 23N72W, continuing as a warm front to 22N77W. Isolated showers are possible within 120 nm of this frontal system. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N67W to 19N68W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. A large eastern Atlantic mid-upper level low is near 32N24W. The low and associated mid-upper trough is moving northward. These features are supporting a surface trough from 32N23W to 30N24W to 24N28W to 18N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 19W-24W. East of the upper trough, a band of thick mid and high level clouds with scattered showers is seen within 120 nm of a line extending from 13N29W to 21N16W. This band continues just inland over Western Sahara and Morocco, but is over water again north of 27N, east of 14W. The warm front near the central Bahamas will lift northward through Tue night while weakening. The stationary portion of that front will also weaken through Tue night. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region Wed and Thu as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Seas will build with these winds over most sections of the area. Winds will diminish and seas will subside north of 22N Fri and Fri night as the gradient associated with the high weakens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen