000 AXNT20 KNHC 231200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse each night through at least Monday night near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, with seas ranging from 9 to 14 feet. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is seen south of 06N between 25W-42W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 07N between 24W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over most of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered over northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds are observed across the Gulf as the ridge remains in control. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche. No significant precipitation is observed at this time. The ridge will shift SE today. A weak cold front will move into the NW waters this afternoon, then stall from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas Coastal Bend on Mon, then gradually dissipate through early Tue. Fresh return flow will set up across the NW waters on Tue, with these conditions spreading E across the entire Gulf waters by early Wed. Wed night, locally strong SE flow is forecast to develop across the N-central waters ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast early Thu. The cold front will stall from the Mississippi Delta to central Mexico on Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to 15.5N80W. Isolated showers are from 17N-20N between 80W-83W. Elsewhere, isolated showers are seen near the ABC Islands. The GOES East mid and low level water vapor channels show that dry air covers the eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean. Strong to near gale force trades will continue across the S-central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. The weakening stationary front extending SW from the Windward Passage to 15.5N80W will gradually dissipate today. Fresh to locally strong NE flow will continue across the W Caribbean through late Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE flow will develop across the NW Caribbean on Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N61W to 24N69W, then continues as a stationary front to the Windward Passage. No significant convective activity is seen near the front. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N29.5W to 31N30W. A surface trough continues from 31N30W to 27N34W to 24N39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N between 26W- 32W. Another surface trough extends along 33W from 22N-26N. Scattered showers are along this trough north of 23N. Remnants of the front that extends from 28N65W to the Windward Passage will drift NW on Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh easterlies are expected S of 28N on Tue, increasing to fresh to locally strong on Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen