000 AXNT20 KNHC 220539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... Westerly winds at 30 to 40 kt are depicted in scatterometer data in the western Atlantic behind a cold front that currently extends from 31N71W to 21N76W. Expect these winds to continue tonight with seas as high as 14 to 21 feet in west swell. Near gale to gale force southwesterly flow will prevail west of the front through Saturday morning then diminish by the afternoon. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse this weekend from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W beginning Saturday night, with seas 7 to 11 feet in east swell. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ between 20W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. High pressure will shift eastward across the central Gulf on Saturday, and move across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, leaving a ridge from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into eastern Cuba and enters the west Caribbean near 20N78W to 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the front affecting the area from Jamaica to the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale-force trades will continue across the south- central Caribbean through next week, increasing to gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning on Saturday night. The cold front over the west Caribbean will stall from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on Saturday and gradually dissipate through Sunday. Strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front, increasing to near-gale along the coast of Nicaragua. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N71W to 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the front mainly north of 22N. Gale-force winds are depicted in the latest scatterometer data north of 27N and west of 70W. To the east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N55W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in this map. The first extends along 57W from 17N-23N while the second one is along 36W from 20N-26N. Scattered showers are noted along each trough. The cold front over the western Atlantic will stall from 27N65W to the Windward Passage on Saturday night. Near gale to gale force southwesterly flow will prevail west of the front overnight then diminish by Saturday afternoon. Remnants of the front will drift northwest early next week, with winds and seas diminishing across the region this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA