000 AXNT20 KNHC 211122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO... A large area of gale force wind is behind a vigorous cold front. Strong to gale force winds will progress eastward through the Gulf by Fri evening. Areas north of 22N and east of 94W are forecast to experience gale force winds. Seas across portions of the central Gulf are as high as 21 feet. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...GALE WARNING CARIBBEAN... NE gale force winds are forecast for Sunday 23/0000 UTC until 23/1200 UTC along the coast of N Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W with seas 9 to 13 FT. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN... S to SW gale force winds are in the western Atlantic in advance of a cold front. The area of gales is presently W of a line from 31N72W to 27N76W to 23N80W with seas 8 to 19 ft, highest near 31N77W. The area will expand ,and seas build to 24 ft, through Fri evening as the cold front progress eastward through the waters. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern Liberia near 06N10W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N- 05N between 09W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N- 04N between 29W-50W. w GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/0900 UTC, a 988 mb low is centered over Georgia near 34N83W. A cold front extends S from the low to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N82W to W Cuba near 23N82W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers are N of 23N and E of 90W. Strong to gale force winds in the central and eastern Gulf follow a cold front exiting the basin. Winds will diminish from W to E across the basin through this afternoon. Very large seas of up to 21 ft will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sat. High pres behind the front will shift eastward across the central Gulf on Sat, and move across the Florida Panhandle on Sun, leaving a ridge from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Mon. Fresh return flow will set up across the NW waters on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N82W to Belize near 16N88W. A forming cold front extends from central Cuba near 23N79W to NE Honduras near 16N85W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the forming cold front. 30 kt NW winds are W of the forming cold front. An upper level ridge axis extends from the S Bahamas to N Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds south of Jamaica into NW Colombia. Convection is very limited as upper level ridge remains in control. Scattered showers are noted along the coast of northwest portion of Colombia into Panama and Costa Rica. Most of these showers are associated with the surface trough extending into the Pacific. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through Tue, increasing to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours Sat night, Sun night and again on Tue night. A developing cold front from central Cuba to central Honduras will merge with a reinforcing front currently to the W. The merged boundary will reach from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on Sat morning, then drift S and gradually dissipate through Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected W of the boundaries as well, increasing to near gale force along the coast of Nicaragua. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A forming cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N76W to central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the forming cold front to include over the N Bahamas. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 32N38W to 26N50W to 23N60W to 27N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front N of 29N. A surface trough E of the Leeward Islands extends from 22N52W to 13N56W. Rainshowers are within 120 nm of the trough. The forming cold front will be reinforced by another cold front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Near gale to gale force southerly flow from the Straits of Florida to the NW Bahamas and N of there will persist, shifting NE and diminishing by early Sat. The developing cold front will reach from near 31N74W to eastern Cuba this afternoon, from 31N70W to the eastern tip of Cuba late tonight, weaken from Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Sat, then stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sun. Remnants of the front will drift NW on Mon and Tue, with winds and seas diminishing across the region this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa