000 AXNT20 KNHC 200536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...Special Features... ...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO... A large area of gale force winds is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon along and behind a vigorous cold front. The gales will progress eastward through the Gulf, exiting the Gulf by Friday evening. Areas north of 24N between 82W-95W are forecast to experience gale force winds, with some areas as high as 40 kt. Seas across portions of the central Gulf will build to 12 ft by Thursday afternoon and as high as 20 ft by late Thursday night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale force winds are expected in the western Atlantic N of 28N between 78W-81W beginning around 20/1800 ahead of a cold front. The area of gales will expand significantly late Thursday night and early Friday morning as the cold front moves through the waters. Gale force winds are forecast through the NW Bahamas southward to 25N and between 72W-80W, including near the coast of South Florida. By late Friday, the gales will still be occurring in the area. Seas in portions of the area will build to 10-20 ft late Thursday into Friday. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 04N20W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 25W- 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low is centered over S Louisiana near 30N89W. A cold front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. A stationary front extends E from the low to N Florida near 30N81W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico N of 22N and E of 91W to include most of Florida. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the W Gulf producing diffluence over the E Gulf and enhancing convection. The current cold front will move E across the central gulf waters overnight and through the eastern waters on Thu and Fri. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the eastern waters overnight ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force westerly winds currently developing W of the front will increase to gale force on Thu, with seas building to 21 ft across the east- central waters on Thu night and Fri. A post-frontal surface high will shift E across the central gulf waters on Sat, and move NE across the Florida Panhandle on Sun leaving a weak ridge from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean is currently experiencing fairly quiet weather with only some light to moderate trade wind showers possible over the SE Caribbean as well as the area south of the Windward Passage over toward Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southern Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Mon, increasing to near gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night with minimal gale conditions possible on Sat night. Strong southerly flow will develop across the W Caribbean overnight ahead of a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel on Thu. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica by Sat morning, then drift S while gradually dissipating through Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on Fri, increasing to near gale force along Nicaragua coast on Fri into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N46W to 25N60W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm E of front N of 28N. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N30W. The remnants of a front will lift N across the central waters through Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly flow will develop N of the Bahamas early Thu, with these conditions spreading S to along 22N while increasing to minimal gale force of 24N late Thu on both sides of a strong cold front moving off the SE United States coast. The front will reach from 30N75W to central Cuba on Fri, and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Sat. Winds will begin to diminish from the W on Sat with seas less than 8 ft throughout on Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa