000 AXNT20 KNHC 191744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...Special Features... ...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO... The 36-hour forecast, from the 19/1200 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front from 26N82W to 23N82W to 16N87W. Expect W-to-NW GALE- FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet, in the entire Gulf of Mexico to the W of the front. E of the front: S-to-SW winds 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet. ...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 33-hour forecast, from the 19/1200 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front to the west of the area. Expect GALE-FORCE S winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, N of 26N W of 76W. ELSEWHERE: N of 26N W of 70W S to SE winds 20 to 30 knots. Sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal sections of Liberia near 05N08W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 04N20W 01N28W 01N37W, and 02N41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 30W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 15W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure center has developed in just to the NW of Freeport Texas. A developing cold front curves from the low pressure center to 26N95W and to the Mexico Gulf coast near 23N. A developing warm extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W, and to 24N85W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 24N to 26N between 84W and 87W, near the southern end of the warm front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line from 20N96W to 26N92W beyond 30N89W, and elsewhere from 27N northward from 90W eastward. The current cold front, with widespread thunderstorms, will race across the Gulf waters from tonight through early Friday. Strong to near gale force S winds will develop in the SE waters tonight ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force W to NW winds behind the front will reach gale force on Thursday night, with sea heights building to near 20 feet. Gale-force wind conditions are expected across the N Gulf through Friday morning. A post-frontal surface high pressure will set up in the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning, and move to the NE waters on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Rainshowers are possible, in clusters of broken low level clouds, across much of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS-model depicts a 700 mb inverted trough, that extends from the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, to 13N80W, toward the NE corner of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.14 in Trinidad, and 0.08 in Guadeloupe. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday, increasing to near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night. Strong southerly wind flow will develop across the W Caribbean Sea tonight, ahead of a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel on Thursday. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to N Panama adjacent waters by Saturday morning, then it will stall and dissipate on Sunday. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected behind the front on Friday, increasing to near gale force along Nicaragua adjacent waters from Friday night through Saturday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N50W to 25N60W to 22N70W. The front becomes dissipating from 22N70W, across the SE Bahamas to 23N74W still in the Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of 26N55W beyond 32N47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W westward. The current weakening cold front, that is across the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas, will dissipate today as it gradually drifts NW today. Strong southerly wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Thursday morning, increasing to minimal gale force Thursday night on both sides of a strong cold front that will be moving off Florida. The front will reach from 30N75W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba on Friday morning, and from 30N68W to the Windward Passage on Saturday morning. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the Straits of Florida, the northern and the central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will start to subside from Saturday night through Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT