000 AXNT20 KNHC 181037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 537 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 07N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N30W to 02N42W. A surface trough is along 43W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 22W-34W, and from 02S-06N between 40W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high centered over S Louisiana near 30N91W. 10-15 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken clouds cover much of the basin. A developing intense low pressure system will move E-NE from Texas to the Carolinas Wed through Thu night, dragging a strong cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate across the region Thu afternoon as the low pressure deepens. Gale force winds are likely north of 25N across the central and northern Gulf Thu night and Fri. Seas will build to a maximum of around 20 ft on Fri east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb surface low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 17N85W. A stationary front extends north from the low to 22N77W then into the west Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean. However, strong to near-gale winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A weakening stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to 16N85W will dissipate later today, then drift westward into the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a surface trough. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Sat, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia each night. A cold front associated with an intense low pressure system north of the area will enter the NW Caribbean Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N57W to 28N63W. The front continues as stationary from 28N63W to eastern Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm east of the cold front mainly north of 28N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N37W. The west Atlantic front will push eastward today to extend from 31N50W to Turks and Caicos by this evening. The western portion of the front will slowly drift northward Wed and Thu as an intense low pressure system develops over the southeast U.S. Gale force winds are likely north of 27N east of Florida Thu night through Fri night. Maximum seas will build to around 20 ft by Fri night west of 70W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa