000
AXNT20 KNHC 172335
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W to 05N12W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N12W to 03N39W. A surface trough is along 
41W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 03N44W to the coast 
of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-
11N between 30W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf Coast and the Gulf of 
Mexico, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the Mexico coast
near 23N98W and another 1026 mb high near 29N91W. Although broken
clouds cover much of the basin, little in the way of shower 
activity is noted. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate 
winds across the basin.

The ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue 
night as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards 
North Carolina. A low pressure system will move northeast from 
the coast of Texas Wed to the southeast United States Thu, 
dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions 
are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thursday 
afternoon as the low pressure deepens over the southeast US. 
Strong to gale-force winds are expected across the central and 
northern Gulf by the end of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1016 mb surface low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 
16N85W. A stationary front extends north from the low to 22N79W
then into the west Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted along and
west of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh 
trades across the Caribbean. However, strong to near-gale winds
will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are 
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.
 
The stationary front over the west Caribbean dissipate tonight, 
and its remnants will then move westward as a trough across the
northwest Caribbean on Tuesday. The trough will reach the Yucatan
Peninsula by Tuesday night. The next cold front is forecast to 
enter the northwest Caribbean by late Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N61W to 
23N73W. The front continues as stationary from 23N73W to eastern 
Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm ahead
of the cold front mainly north of 27N. Scattered showers are noted
along the remainder of the cold front. Surface ridging prevails 
across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 27N45W.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will push east and 
extend from 28N65W across the southern Bahamas tonight, and from 
25N65W to the Turks and Caicos by Tuesday evening. The western 
portion of the front is forecast to lift northward Wednesday 
through Thursday as another cold front moves across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Expect strong to gale-force winds and building seas 
mainly across the waters north of the Bahamas through the end of
the week as the low pressure system deepens over the southeast 
US dragging its cold front over the region. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA