000 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 04N21W to 01N30W to 03N39W. A surface trough is along 41W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 03N44W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 36W-46W, from 06S-00N between 32W-43W, and from 01N-04N between 26W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Three highs of 1025, 1025 and 1027 mb respectively are centered over SW Mississippi, S Texas and NE Mexico. Although broken clouds cover much of the northern Gulf of Mexico, little in the way of any shower activity is noted. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the low pressure deepens over the SE United States. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the central and northern Gulf Thu night and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A stationary front extends N from the low to 21N81W to Cuba near 21N77W to the Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front in the NW Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean. However, strong to near gales were shown by last night's ASCAT pass near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. The stationary front from eastern Cuba to 16N85W will dissipate by tonight, and its remnants will then move westward as a trough across the NW Caribbean on Tue. The trough will reach the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, reaching near gale force, mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 32N63W to 23N74W. The front continues as a stationary front from 23N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of the cold front within 60 nm of a line running from 32N58W to 29N61.5W to 26.5NN67W. Some clouds and isolated showers are in the western Atlantic, north of 30N and west of 72W. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 25N51W. The cold front over the western Atlantic will push E and extend from 28N65W across the SE Bahamas by this evening, and from 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos by Tue evening. The western portion of the front is forecast to lift northward Wed through Thu as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong to gale force winds and building seas mainly across the waters N of the Bahamas late Thu through Fri night as a low pressure system deepens over the SE United States dragging a cold front over the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen