000 AXNT20 KNHC 171049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 548 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02N30W to 03N38W. A surface trough is along 40W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 03N42W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S-04N between 25W-36W, from 01S-09N between 36W-42W, and from 00N-04N between 42W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over S Texas near 29N97W. Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the frontal boundary that currently extends across the western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Scattered to broken low clouds is over most of the Gulf. A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the northern waters Thu night and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A stationary front also extends N from the low to 21N82W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N between 70W-77W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds W of the front are forecast to persist today. The front will dissipate by tonight, and its remnants will then move westward as a trough across the NW Caribbean on Tue. The trough will reach the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia reaching near gale force mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to the S Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 60W-67W. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N51W. The front will push E and extend from 28N65W across the SE Bahamas to Camaguey, Cuba by Mon evening, and from 25N65W to eastern Cuba by Tue evening. The western portion of the front is forecast to lift northward Wed through Thu as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong to gale force winds and building seas mainly across the waters N of the Bahamas late Thu through Fri night as a low pressure system deepens over the SE of United States dragging a cold front over the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa