000 AXNT20 KNHC 170519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02N25W to 03N38W. A surface trough is along 39W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 04N41W to the coast of N Brazil near 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05S-04N between 21W-36W, from 03N-08N between 36W-41W, and from 01S-03N between 41W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over S Texas near 27N99W. Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the frontal boundary that currently extends across the western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Scattered to broken low clouds is over most of the Gulf. A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Near gale force winds are expected across the northern waters Thu night through Fri afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A stationary front extends S from the low along the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua to 15N83W to 12N83W. A stationary front also extends N from the low to 20N82W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N between 70W-77W. gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The front will dissipate across the Caribbean waters Monday evening. A surface trough, remnants of the front, will then move west over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia reaching near gale force mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N68W to the S Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 65W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N47W. The front will push E and extend from 28N65W to the southern Bahamas by Mon evening, stall from 24N65W to the central Bahamas Tue evening and dissipate over the SE waters early on Wed. Expect strong to near gale S winds and building seas across the waters N of the Bahamas on Thu. Winds will increase to gale force Thu night through Fri morning as a low pressure system deepens over the SE of United States dragging a cold front over the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa