000 AXNT20 KNHC 162325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03N36W. A surface trough is along 38W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 05N38W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection are noted south of 13N between 25W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin in the wake of the frontal boundary that currently extends across the western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. The ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 to 72 hours as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas to SE Louisiana by Sun evening, and toward the Florida Panhandle by Mon evening. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas to the SE United States by mid week, dragging a new cold front across the Gulf waters by the end of the week. Marine conditions could deteriorate across the region starting on Thursday as the low pressure deepens over the southeast of United States. CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic into the west Caribbean as a stationary front from 22N79W to 18N84W to 15N83W, then weakens to 11N84W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N between 70W-77W. gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The front will dissipate across the Caribbean waters by Tuesday. Fresh northerly winds will continue west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through Monday. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N70W to 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the cold front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N56W. The front will continue moving east and extend from 28N65W to eastern Cuba by Monday evening, and from 24N65W across the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Tuesday evening, then stall and dissipate on by mid-week. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the western Atlantic waters on Thursday, as a low pressure system deepens over the southeast US. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA