000 AXNT20 KNHC 161049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 549 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front over the eastern Atlantic is analyzed from 31N23W to 26N38W to 22N53W. Latest scatterometer pass shows strong to near gale force winds. The front will slowly move E across central Cuba today, reaching eastern Cuba on Mon, then will dissipate across the Caribbean waters on Tue. Fresh northerly winds are expected west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly at night. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W. A surface trough is along 07N between 35W-36W. The ITCZ resumes from 01N38W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough extending 180 to 200 nm on either side of the trough. Additional scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity and within the ITCZ near Brazil south of 03N between 40W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold fronts that was on the eastern Gulf waters has moved into the western Caribbean. Behind the front, a surface trough extends from 29N78W to 24N82W. Scattered showers are possible near the dissipating front. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 25N88W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered over northern Mexico. A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 to 72 hours as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas to SE Louisiana by Sun evening, and toward the Florida Panhandle by Mon evening. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a new cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions could deteriorate across the region later on Thu as the low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into a stationary front from western Cuba to 15N87W near the Gulf of Honduras. A pre-frontal trough extends from 19N80W to 14N83W. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean and near the coast of Honduras from mainly west of 80W. Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. A nearly stationary front is over the NW Caribbean and extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will slowly move E across central Cuba today, reaching eastern Cuba on Mon, then will dissipate across the Caribbean waters on Tue. Fresh northerly winds are expected west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N23W to 26N38W to 22N53W. A second front is beginning to dissipate north of 30N and west of 78W. Scattered showers are noted east of the cold front mainly north of 31N to 27N between 72W-76W. Behind the front, scatterometer pass shows small area of strong to near gale force winds between 32W to 37W. Scattered showers are noted along the vicinity of the front south of 27N. To the east, another front is analyzed as a cold front from 31N27W to 22N50W, then as a stationary front continues from that point to to 23N59W to 27N68W. Scattered showers are observed along the cold front. A surface trough is observed near the coast of Africa from 30N10W to 23N12W. A cold front extends from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. The front will push E and extend from 31N70W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba by this evening, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon evening, and from 24N65W across the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Tue evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE waters on Wed. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the N waters on Thu as a low pressure system deepens over the SE of United States. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres