000 AXNT20 KNHC 151104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale off the coast of Morocco... A 14/2216 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off the coast of Morocco north of 30N and east of 12W in the region called AGADIR. According to the latest forecast from Meteo France, winds are expected to subside below gale force in Agadir by 15/1200 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast that is listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the west coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N24W. A surface trough is along 26/27W from 01N-09N. The ITCZ continues west of the surface trough from 02N29W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the ITCZ between the W coast of Africa and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ from 26W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Naples Florida to the western tip of Cuba to 16N88W. A line of moderate showers accompanies the front over South Florida, but this line becomes a broken line of light rain showers over the Gulf from 26N81W to 23.5N83W. A surface trough is analyzed at 0900 UTC from 31N84W to 26N85W. Scattered showers are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico between the cold front and surface trough. Drier air is over the western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface observations indicate that strong W-NW winds cover the western half of the Gulf. The cold front in the SE Gulf from Naples Florida to the western tip of Cuba will move SE of the basin later today. Winds and seas will continue to diminish today, with moderate westerly flow expected across the Gulf by this evening, becoming light north winds Sun and Mon. Easterly flow will set up across the northern Gulf on Tue as weak low pressure develops over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba near 22N85W to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 16N88W to 14N90W. Isolated to scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean from 18N-23N between 78W-84W. Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. The cold front in the NW Caribbean will stall and slowly dissipate through Mon. Strong north winds are forecast W of the front in the Gulf of Honduras through early Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean E of 80W through early Sun, with highest winds at night off the NW coast of Colombia. Large north swell will reach the Leewards today and spread through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front has emerged off the SE U.S. coast and extends over the Atlantic Ocean from 32N80W to Daytona Beach Florida, and continues to Naples Florida and to the western tip of Cuba. A squall line with thunderstorms is analyzed to be about 30 or 40 nm east of the cold front from 28N-31N. Scattered moderate convection is mostly northwest of a line extending from 28N79W to 30N76W to 32N73W. Moderate showers are west of the squall line to the U.S. coast and extend inland over Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Gale force winds are occurring north of the forecast area, a few hundred nm east of the Carolinas. To the east, a cold front passes through 32N30W to 27N41W, then transitions to a stationary front at that point to 25N54W to 25N63W to 28N71W. Isolated to scattered showers are noted from 23N-33N between 36W-47W, but this activity may be more related to upper-level diffluence in the area. A 1026 mb high is near 29N27W. Strong SE to S winds are expected east of Florida and the Bahamas today ahead of the cold front that extends from 32N80W to Daytona Beach and across Florida to Naples. The cold front will reach from 31N77W to the Straits of Florida this evening, from 31N72W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Sun, then stall and weaken NW of the Bahamas Sun night and Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen