000 AXNT20 KNHC 122319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi Delta to Tamiahua, Mexico on Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri morning and move E of area before sunrise on Sat. Gale-force winds are expected on Thursday night behind the front over the area north of 25N and west of 94W. These conditions will continue through Friday evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N47W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 31W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida and extending across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing across the area. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will precede a cold front moving off the Texas coast by early Thursday with the front reaching from the Mississippi Delta to Tamiahua, Mexico on Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri morning and move E of area before sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale force northerly flow west of the front will increase to gale- force on Thursday evening over the northwest and west-central gulf waters. Near gale force southerly flow expected east of the front on Friday. The pressure gradient will relax this weekend with moderate west flow expected on Sat evening with seas subsided to less than 8 ft throughout the gulf by sunrise on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N75W to 16N86W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered showers are seen south of 16N between 66W-72W just north of the ABC Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively dry. Gentle to moderate trades winds are noted across the eastern and central portion of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Cuba mainly west of 76W. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean with nocturnal pulses to near-gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. These winds will expand north across the entire central Caribbean on Friday. The weak frontal boundary across the west Caribbean will drift west-northwest and gradually dissipate through early Friday. A cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean on Friday afternoon, and dissipate over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Large north swell will reach the Leewards on Saturday, and spread south through the northeast Atlantic passages during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N65W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N73W. Scattered showers are noted along the front north of 28N. To the east, a 1027 mb surface high is centered near 31N27W and extends across the remainder of the basin. The front is forecast to drift back north on Thursday and extend along 25N on Friday. Fresh to strong winds will develop along this boundary as strong high pressure moves east across the northern waters ahead of the next cold front to enter the west Atlantic waters on Friday night. A strong pressure gradient between the front and the high pressure will support strong to near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thursday night and Friday. The front is expected to reach from 31N68W to the central Bahamas on Sunday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA