000 AXNT20 KNHC 121132 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to 25N68W to the SE Bahamas near 22N72W to eastern Cuba near 20.5N76W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 30N between 58W-64W. Gale force winds N of 29N between 60W-67W will be ending by 1200 UTC this morning. Seas N of 29N between 55W-65W are 12 to 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Thu near 1200 UTC. The cold front will quickly reach the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then push SE of the basin Fri night. Strong to near gale force N winds will develop west of the front, except reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the northwest and west-central Gulf waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 11W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N95W. Otherwise, a 1027 mb high pressure is centered over SW Georgia, with a surface ridge extending across most of the Gulf. High, thick cirrus clouds are streaming into the western Gulf from the west. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail across the western Gulf waters through early Thu ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf on Thu. Gale force winds are expected with this front over the northwest and west-central Gulf Thu night into Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20.5N76W to 19N80.5W to the N coast of central Honduras near 16N86W. Isolated showers are noted just west of the Cayman Islands. Scattered showers are noted in the western Gulf of Honduras. Broken clouds and isolated showers also cover much of Cuba and the Windward Passage. In the eastern Caribbean, isolated showers are seen near and just north of the ABC Islands. However, most of the eastern Caribbean is relatively dry. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Sun night with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. A stationary front extending from E Cuba to the N coast of central Honduras will gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue west of the front through this morning. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in the Atlantic associated with the cold front. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure extending from a 1026 mb high pressure near 28N43W dominates the remainder of the basin E of the cold fronts. A strong ridge will build N of the area on Thu ahead of the next cold front to come off Florida Fri evening. A ridge extending from W to E along 29N on Wed will shift north setting up strong to near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thu night and Fri, ahead of another cold front sweeping across the northern waters during the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen