000 AXNT20 KNHC 112332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N50W to 27N69W to across the SE Bahamas into eastern Cuba with a reinforcing cold front extending from 1001 mb rapidly intensifying low pressure near 35N70W, racing well NE of the area, through 32N71W to near 28N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 27N within 90 nm E of the initial front, with scattered showers W of the boundary. While this low has developing hurricane force winds well N of the area, a recent scatterometer pass showed gale force winds reaching well S of the low into the discussion waters, extending N of 28N within 210 nm E of the reinforcing front. Seas are also 10 to 13 ft in this same area. Gale force winds are expected to persist across the northern waters E of the reinforcing front into early Wed before diminishing. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue W of the initial front through Wed morning, while fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front diminish by late Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N37W to near the coast of Brazil at 04N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 03N between 10W and 13W, from 03N to 04N between 26W and 28W, and also generally from the equator northward to 05N between 31W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 39W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located within 60 nm offshore of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Otherwise, a 1030 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana near 31N92W with a surface ridge extending across the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough just offshore of the eastern seaboard of the U.S. extends southward over the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Broken low-level stratocumulus cover the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, while low-level stratus is noted in the SW Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. High pressure will persist across the basin through early Thu while gradually shifting eastward as the next cold front approaches. Return southerly flow will develop on the western side of the high, with increasing winds to fresh to strong over western portions by early Thu. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by late Thu morning, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then pushing SE of the basin Fri night. Strong winds will follow the front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the NW, N central and W central Gulf of Mexico waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the northwest Caribbean Sea, a stalling cold front extends from near the coast of eastern Cuba at 20N78W to eastern Honduras near 16N86W. A surface trough is located just SE of the front near from 17.5N81W to 14N82.5W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough and the frontal boundary. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with more moderately dry air filling into the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Sun night with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. The front will become stationary in the next few hours, then will gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue W of the front through Wed afternoon before diminishing. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning associated with a pair of cold fronts across the SW N Atlantic basin. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure extending from 1028 mb high pressure near 32N22W dominates the remainder of the basin E of the cold fronts. Isolated to widely scattered shower activity is noted mainly S of 23N across the tropics outside of heavier activity discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A strong ridge will build N of the SW N Atlantic area on Thu ahead of the next cold front with fresh to near gale force southerly return flow developing N of the Bahamas beginning Thu night and continuing through Sun evening. The cold front itself is forecast to move E off Florida Fri evening, moving across the SW N Atlantic basin during the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Lewitsky