000 AXNT20 KNHC 111841 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will stall from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras on Wed, and gradually dissipate through Thu. Gale-force winds are expected with this front north of 29N between 63W-73W Tue evening into early Wed morning, along with seas of 10-15 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue west of the front through Wed morning. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 08W-19W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen south of 06N between 32W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana and Mississippi. The high extends a surface ridge across the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. extends southward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Broken low-level stratocumulus cover the eastern and southern Gulf. The northwestern Gulf has cleared out. The surface high pressure will continue to prevail over the basin through midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then pushing SE of the basin Fri night. Strong winds will follow the front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the northwest Caribbean, a cold front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to the N coast of Honduras near 15N87W. A surface trough is located east of the front near 20N79W to 15N82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough and the frontal boundary near the coast of Honduras. Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in the eastern and central Caribbean, especially east of 81W and south of 16N. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Sat night with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. A cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will stall from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras on Wed, and gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue west of the front through Wed morning. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 23N75W into the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 80 nm to the east of the front from 31N to 23N between 63W to 73W. A second cold front extends from a 1004 mb low near 33N72W to 29N79W. Broken clouds and scattered showers cover much of the western Atlantic from the first front westward. The weather is relatively quiet across the remainder of the basin, with a 1030 mb high analyzed to the northeast near 39N107W. The surface ridge extends from this high westward to N of Puerto Rico. A cold front from 31N64W to central Cuba will be reinforced by a second cold front today, with the merged boundary stalling from 26N65W to Hispaniola on Wed, and gradually dissipating north of the Leewards on Thu. A strong wind shift will accompany the front, with minimal gale conditions expected N of 29N and E of 72W tonight. A ridge extending from W to E along 29N on Wed will shift north setting up strong to near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thu night and Fri, ahead of another cold front sweeping across the northern waters during the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres