000 AXNT20 KNHC 091758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1258 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche will continue to shift SE across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through the evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds and thunderstorms will continue developing along a squall line 90 nm SE of the front. Expect NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots with seas around 8 to 10 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front over the Florida panhandle extending into the Bay of Campeche will move off the coast of northern Florida this afternoon A gale warning is in effect N of 29 N ahead of the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and thunderstorms will continue developing along a squall line that extends across central Florida into the western Atlantic coast. Expect SE S to SW gale force winds 30 to 35 knots, and seas 8 to 10 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection are noted south of 27N between 30W-40W. Scattered showers are also seen along and within the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 29N84W to 23N90W into the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. A squall line 90 nm ahead of the front extends from 29N82W to 24N86W. Numerous moderate to strong convection are developing across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico along and within the squall line. A warm front continues from the 1010 mb low east along the Florida panhandle to 31N79W. The cold front will continue to shift SE across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front, mainly N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front through tonight, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf today. High pres will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea with a surface ridge building across the the northeast Atlantic into the Caribbean. Under this ridge, a stable airmass remains over the region with dry conditions. No significant convection is noted across the Greater Antilles. Scattered showers are possible near the coast of Panama and Costa Rica associated to the proximity of the monsoon trough near the area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the latest scatterometer south of Hispaniola to the NW coast of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late tonight, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low pressure is centered near 30N84W over the Florida panhandle. A warm front extends east from the low into the southern Georgia coast near 31N81W to 31N61W, then transitions into a stationary front to 31N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends south of 32N between 71W to 81 W associated to the approaching front over the Gulf of Mexico. Further east into central Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extends 31N46W to 29N48W. A surface trough extends southwest of a cold front from 28N48W to 24N64W. Scattered showers are noted between 90 to 180 nm east of the front. No significant convection is noted south of 28N within the proximity of the trough at this time. Upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N26W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between Africa and 30W. A surface trough 29N30W to 23N25W. Scattered convection are between 15W-28W and south of 31N. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida later today. A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in the southerly flow today through Mon. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night, potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with conditions then improving by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres