000 AXNT20 KNHC 090601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The 12-hour forecast, from the 09/0000 UTC forecast, consists of: a low pressure center to the NE of the area. A cold front from 29N83W to 25N87W to 22N90W to 18.5N95W. Expect NW-to-N GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, S of 21N W of 95W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 12-hour forecast, from the 09/0000 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front to the west of the area. Expect S-to-SW GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, N of 29N W of 78W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W and 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 04N23W, 04N37W, curving to 02N50W. Isolated and disorganized moderate rainshowers are from 08N southward from 50W eastward. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front passes through 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 30N82W, to a SW Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center. A cold front continues from the 1010 mb low pressure center, to 27N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 20N, and inland to 21N99W. A stationary front continues from 21N99W, northwestward, to the Far West of Texas. An upper level trough is digging through Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi into the Deep South of Texas. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward from 88W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N to 26N from 90W eastward. Dense multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are to the NW of the cold front. The current SW Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center will move eastward, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds will be ahead of the cold front, mainly N of 26N. It is possible that the wind speeds may be higher in and near thunderstorms that are ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong winds will prevail to the W of the front from tonight through Sunday night. GALE-FORCE winds are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will shift E of the Gulf waters early on Monday. Surface high pressure will build in its wake. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W, to eastern Honduras, into the Yucatan Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. An upper level trough passes through 20N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 16N56W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds, across much of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.06 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 11N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean Sea through Thursday night, pulsing to near GALE-FORCE off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel on Sunday night, reaching from the Windward Passage to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tuesday night, where it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front from Monday afternoon through early Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N63W to 30N72W. A warm front continues from 30N72W to 31N77W, to Florida near 30N82W, to a SW Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 30N44W to 30N60W, to 28N81W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Bermuda. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N46W to 31N50W. The front continues as dissipating stationary, from 31N50W to 27N60W, and as a dissipating warm front from 27N60W across the Bahamas to 26N80W off the coast of south Florida. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N40W to 25N60W to 24N80W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N28W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 33W. One surface is along 24N27W 20N24W 16N22W. A second surface trough is along 22N31W 20N32W 17N33W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward between the Canary Islands and 30W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W eastward, and from 10N to 20N from 35W eastward. The current stationary front will dissipate completely later tonight. The current warm front will move northward, outside the area tonight. A strong cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday. GALE-FORCE wind conditions are forecast, N of 29N ahead of the front, in southerly wind flow, through Monday. It is possible that another low pressure center may develop off the Carolinas on Monday night, potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with conditions then improving by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT