000 AXNT20 KNHC 090003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A low pressure center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect NW to N gale force winds on 09/1200 UTC over the SW Gulf of Mexico within area bounded by 20N95W to 19N95W to 19N96W to 20N97W to 21N97W to 20N95W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz. Expect the gale to last six hours. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. Gale conditions are possible N of 30N ahead of the front to 73W in the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Expect SW winds 30 to 35 knots with seas height ranging from 8 to 13 feet. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N08W to the Atlantic Ocean near 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N33W to 06N38W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 34W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 08/2100 UTC a 1010 mb low is centered over SE Louisiana near 30N90W. A cold front extends S from the low to S of Veracruz Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 24N. A warm front extends E from the low to N Florida near St Augustine at 30N81W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the warm front. 20-25 kt N winds are presently W of the cold front. 20-30 kt S winds are E of the cold front near SE Louisiana. See above about the forecast Gale over the SW Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas with axis along 97W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough over the north central Gulf of Mexico enhancing convection. The deepening surface low pressure system over SE Louisiana will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front, mainly N of 26N. Winds may be higher in and near thunderstorms ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front tonight through Sun night, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf Sun. The cold front will shift E of the gulf waters early Mon, with high pres building in its wake. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. A trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 08/2100 UTC, a warm front is over the NW Atlantic from St Augustine Florida at 30N81W to 31N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A dissipating stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N50W to 24N64W to 24N70W. A dissipating warm front continues to 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Further east, a surface trough extends south of 23N between 25W- 21W. Scattered convection is noted south of 30N between 20W-30W. Another surface trough is seen south of 24N between 30W-33W. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature. The dissipating warm front over the N Bahamas will dissipate later this evening. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. A gale warning is in effect N of 30N ahead of the front in the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night, potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with conditions then improving by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa