000 AXNT20 KNHC 081801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A low pressure center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong the near gale southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front tonight through Sun night, with gale force winds and sea up to 8 feet expected over the SW gulf Sun. The cold front will shift E of the gulf waters by early Monday, with high pressure building in its wake. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. Gale conditions are possible N of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Expect SW winds 30 to 35 knots with seas height ranging from 9 to 15 feet. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 04N08W into the Atlantic Ocean near 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and within the ITCZ south to the Equator and 25W to 50W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 07N between 15W-21W and 01N between 05W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Atlantic Ocean across Central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N82W, then continues west near 29N87W and connects to a 1013 mb low pressure near 29N93W. A cold front extends southward and into 23N97W north of Tampico, Mexico. The front becomes stationary in Mexico, and it curves northwestward beyond 31N106W. An upper level trough is digging through northern Mexico, west Texas. Scattered moderate to strong convection are in the coastal waters of Louisiana extending 210 nm of the coast, and within 80 nm of the cold front from 29N to 86W-93W. The low pres system over the northern gulf will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front tonight through Sun night, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf Sun. The cold front will shift E of the gulf waters early Mon, with high pres building in its wake. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridge covers most of the basin and an upper trough to the east cuts across the E Caribbean with its axis along 60W-72W. Latest scatterometer shows fresh to strong trades south of 17N across the Greater Antilles and the southwest Caribbean. No significant convection is noted across much of the basin with the exception of some scattered showers near the Yucatan peninsula. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Wed night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N73W to the coast of central Florida near 28N80W and into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted 90 nm southeast of the stationary front. A secondary stationary front extends from 31N50W to 24N65W, curving across the central Bahamas, and to the coast of central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are seen along and within the front. Further east, surface trough extends south of 23N between 25W- 21W. Scattered convection is noted south of 30N between 20W-30W. Another surface trough is seen south of 24N between 30w-33W. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature. The stationary front near 25N65W to across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba will dissipate today. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. Gale conditions are possible N of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres