000 AXNT20 KNHC 071729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system and cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Behind the front, gale force winds along with seas of 10 to 12 ft are forecast on Sunday in the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 22N and west of 94W. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 03N30W to 00N45W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N southward between the coast of Africa and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, except along the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. A 1019 mb surface low has formed over south Texas near 28N99W. A cold front extends west from the low over northern Mexico. A developing stationary front extends NE from the low and then east over east Texas and south Louisiana about 50 nm inland from the Gulf Coast. Numerous showers cover much of Texas and northern Louisiana. Most of the activity is over land at this time with only isolated showers over the Gulf west of 96.5W from 23N-28N. The low pressure over south Texas will slowly strengthen today while moving little. The low will then track eastward along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast tonight through Saturday night with strong to near gale southerly winds ahead of a trailing cold front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will follow behind the front across the Gulf Sat night through Sun night, with gale force winds possible over the SW Gulf Sun. The cold front will shift E of the Gulf waters Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W with no significant convection in the area. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean. Total precipitable water imagery shows an area of enhanced moisture moving westward over western Caribbean near the E coast of Central America. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the E coast of Nicaragua and over eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. A small area of scattered moderate convection is near and within 60 nm of Chetumal Mexico. In the SE Caribbean, isolated showers are near Trinidad, as mid-upper level SE winds are transporting some moisture northwestward from the ITCZ. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia through tonight. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night. The front will continue eastward, extending from near the Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will affect the waters off the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Honduras Mon night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N51W to 30.5N54W. The front is stationary from that point to eastern Cuba near 20N78W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the front between 53W-65W, with isolated showers possible along the front from 65W to the SE Bahamas to Cuba. In the eastern portion of the basin, a surface trough is analyzed from 24N25W to 19N30W. Water vapor imagery shows a potent and persistent upper-level low centered near 26N26W. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-32N between 15W-27W. The stationary front from 25N65W to eastern Cuba will linger today, then dissipate Sat. A developing low pres system over the southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible N of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow through Mon. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night potentially significantly impacting the waters N of Grand Bahama through the middle of the week. Meteo France mentions the possibility of strong to near gale force winds tonight and Saturday in the area from 25N-30N between 22W-28W. These winds will result from a strong high pressure to the north of that area and a trough of low pressure just to the southwest. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen