000 AXNT20 KNHC 071112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 25W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb high centered over west Atlantic near 31N75W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the western half of the basin, while moderate winds prevail east of 90W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the western portion of the basin will increase to strong in the northwest Gulf tonight ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over southeast Texas. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend with strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of a trailing cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W. Scattered showers are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers prevail across the eastern Caribbean waters mainly east of 72W. The front will dissipate this morning. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters through the morning hours also. Trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase through the weekend, pulsing to near- gale north of Colombia near 12N75W at night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sunday night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/ Nicaragua border by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N53W to 25N63W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall this morning and dissipate through the weekend. A developing intense low pressure system over the southern U.S.A. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday morning. Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA