000 AXNT20 KNHC 070527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 22W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over southeast U.S.A. near 32N85W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the western half of the basin, while moderate winds prevail east of 90W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the western portion of the basin will increase to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over SE Texas. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend with strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of a trailing cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf, including the coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will dominate the Gulf waters on Monday, diminishing across western portions on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W. Scattered showers are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers prevail across the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 72W. The front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters through Friday morning. Trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase tonight through the weekend, pulsing to near-gale north of Colombia near 12N75W at night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sunday night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/ Nicaragua border by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N53W to 25N64W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 21N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. To the east, a 1016 mb low is over the east Atlantic near 21N28W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 32N38W. The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall this morning and dissipate by late Saturday. A developing intense low pressure system over the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday morning. Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA