000 AXNT20 KNHC 070004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 02N20W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 08W-20W, and from 02N-08N between 30W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high is centered over Alabama near 32N87W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken low level clouds are over most of the Gulf W of 85W. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of convection. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 91W. Scattered high clouds are also over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 90W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin will increase to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over SE Texas on Fri. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend with strong to near gale southerly winds expected ahead of a trailing cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf, including the coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will dominate the Gulf waters on Mon, diminishing across western portions Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N75W to the NW Caribbean near 20N85W. Scattered showers are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Windward Islands. Scattered showers are also inland over Central America from Belize to Panama. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 75W. A trough is over the E Caribbean with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence is over the central and eastern Caribbean. The front will fully dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters through Fri morning. Trade winds in the S central and in the SW Caribbean will increase tonight through Tue night, pulsing to near Gale NW of Colombia near 12N75W at night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue E of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/ Nicaragua border by late Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N55W to 22N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-28N between 61W-64W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 45 nm of the front. Broken low clouds are W of front to 80W. Elsewhere, a 1015 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 23N28W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall Fri morning and dissipate late Sat. A developing intense low pressure system over the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa