000 AXNT20 KNHC 061735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends across the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues across the Atlantic to 05N17W to 02N22W to 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is present from 00N-08N between 06W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-07N between 20W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... Moist upper-level flow originating from the tropical east Pacific is enhancing scattered showers over Texas between Houston and Corpus Christi. Some of the shower activity could spill over into the Gulf waters today near the coast of Texas. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 19N95W to 21N97W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf, surface ridging dominates, eminating from a 1030 mb high over the SE United States. Fresh E to SE winds cover much of the southern and western Gulf. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over SE Texas on Fri. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend with strong to near gale southerly winds expected ahead of the cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf, including the coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will dominate the Gulf waters on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 20N81.5W, continuing from there as a stationary front to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W. Scattered showers are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, near the front, isolated showers are noted. Isolated showers are also seen just NW of Jamaica, in the Gulf of Honduras and near the ABC islands. Elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean, relatively dry air covers the basin. The front in the NW Caribbean will dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected over central Cuba and adjacent waters through Fri morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the south central Caribbean through Saturday night, with the strongest winds over the waters north of Colombia. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N59W to 24N70W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm SE of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are seen along and within 60 nm ahead of the front from the SE Bahamas to 25N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong N to NE winds north of the front. An deep-layered occluded low is in the vicinity of 24N-28N and 23W-28W. The upper-level low is centered near 27N25W, and a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 24N28W. A dissipating occluded front and dissipating cold front wrap around to the east and south of the low. Scattered moderate convection is observed on the east side of this low from 24N-32N between 14W-23W. Surface ridging prevails across the central portion of the basin, in between the low and the aforementioned front. The cold front over the west Atlantic will stall Fri morning and dissipate late Sat. A developing intense low pressure system over the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen