000 AXNT20 KNHC 061117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 08N13W then continues across the east Atlantic to near 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 210 nm on either side of both axes. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the basin centered inland near 34N88W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds south of 27N and east of 90W while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is noted near the coast over the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 19N95W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of this trough mainly south of 20N. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the end of the week. Southerly return flow will strengthen by Friday night as a low pressure system develops over southeast Texas. This low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of its associated cold front, across the northwest Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the northwestern portion of the basin from 22N80W to 19N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scattered trade wind showers prevail across the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 75W. Relatively dry air continues to dominate the remainder of the Caribbean. The cold front will stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Honduras today. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong northeasterly winds in the lee of Cuba across the approach to the Yucatan Channel and offshore of the eastern Yucatan through Friday morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the south central Caribbean through Saturday night, with the strongest winds over the waters north of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm south of the front between 60W-72W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front. Further east, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N29W. A 1014 mb surface low is to the east of it near 28N24W. A cold front extends from the low to 20N25W to 17N35W, then becomes stationary from that point to 18N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near this low north of 24N between 15W- 23W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The front over the west Atlantic continue moving east through the end of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish this morning while the front stalls and weakens through Saturday. A developing low pressure system across the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday. Gale conditions are possible across the west Atlantic ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA