000 AXNT20 KNHC 060538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 08N13W then continues across the east Atlantic to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 210 nm on either side of the axis between 12W- 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 23N80W to 20N93W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 80 nm ahead of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin centered near 32N89W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds south of 27N while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is noted near the coast over the Bay of Campeche from 22N98W to 20N95W with scattered showers. The cold front will exit the basin tonight. Southerly return flow will strengthen by Friday night as a low pressure system develops over southeast Texas. This low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of the next cold front, particularly across the northwest Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is entering the northwestern portion of the basin over the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. Scattered trade wind showers noted across the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 75W. Relatively dry air continues to dominate the remainder of the Caribbean. The cold front will drop south tonight, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras today. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong northeasterly winds in the lee of Cuba across the approach to the Yucatan Channel and offshore of the eastern Yucatan through Friday morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the south central Caribbean tonight through Saturday night, with the strongest winds over the waters north of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to the Straits of Florida and the west Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 80 nm south of the front between 60W-70W. A secondary cold front extends from 31N71W to 28N77W. No significant convection is associated with this front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong northerly winds north of this front. Further east near the Canary Islands, a 1014 mb surface low is centered near 27N25W. A cold front extends from 21N25W to 18N32W, then becomes stationary from that point to 18N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the low north of 24N between 17W-27W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The fronts over the west Atlantic will merge tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish this morning while the front stalls and weakens through Saturday. A developing low pressure system across the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday. Gale conditions are possible across the west Atlantic ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA