000 AXNT20 KNHC 052353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ moves off the west coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 03N26W to 00N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is present near and within 210 nm south of the axis between 11W-37W. Between 09W- 16W, similar convection is noted within the proximity of the ITCZ and near the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from the Straits of Florida to near the Yucatan Channel into the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 80 nm ahead of the front from the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel to near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure has filtered in over the northern and central Gulf with latest scatterometer data showing fresh to strong winds south of 27N between 86W to 92W behind the front. A surface trough is noted near the coast of Mexico from 22N97W to 19N94W with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough south of 20N between 91W to 93W. A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to near the Yucatan Channel will completely push SE of the area tonight. Southerly return flow will strengthen Fri night as a low pressure system develops over SE Texas. This low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near gale S to SW winds expected ahead of the cold front, particularly across the northern Gulf including the coastal waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan peninsula will drop tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the cold front. Elsewhere, scattered trade wind showers are near the ABC Islands. Isolated showers are near eastern Cuba, and Puerto Rico and the waters south of Puerto Rico, north of 16N. Despite the weak showers, relatively dry air continues to dominate Caribbean Sea, with the notable exception of the NW Caribbean, marked by the approaching front. The cold front will drop S tonight, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Thu. High pres in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba across the approach to the Yucatan Channel and offshore of the eastern Yucatan through Fri morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the S central Caribbean tonight through Sat night, with the strongest winds, near Gale force, NW of northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue E of the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. Another cold front will push SE across the Yucatan Channel early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N64W to the Straits of Florida and the west Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered to moderate convection is noted along and within 80 to 60 nm north and south of the front south of 31N. A secondary developing cold front is near 30N74W to 28N77W extending from a 1010 mb low near 33N73W. No significant convection is associated with this front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong WNW winds north of this front. Further east near the Canary Islands, a 1014 mb low is analyzed near 27N24W with a cold front extending from the low to 27N22W to 19N31W, stationary to 18N45W. A warm front extends NE from the low to 31N22W. A trough extends from the low 27N27W to 30N28W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the low south of 29N between 22W-24W. A 1024 mb high is centered near 31N37W. The high extends its surface ridge axis to 26N49W. The secondary cold front will merge tonight with a reinforcing cold front which currently extends from 31N74W to 28N79W. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the reinforcing front will diminish Thu morning while the front stalls and weakens Thu night through Sat. A developing low pressure system across the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. Gale conditions are possible across the northern portion ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres