000 AXNT20 KNHC 051742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ moves off the west coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 05N20W to 04N33W to 01N40W to 00N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is present near and within 210 nm south of the axis between 11W-20W. Between 20W-46W, similar convection is noted within 240 nm north and within 90 nm south of the axis. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula near 25N81W to 22N89W to 19N92.5W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 90 nm ahead of the front from the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel to near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also present in the eastern and central Bay of Campeche. High pressure has filtered in behind the front across the northern and central Gulf. The cold front will move SE of the area late today. Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong northerly flow across the basin today. Southerly return flow will strengthen Fri night as a low pressure system develops over SE Texas. This low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near gale S to SW winds expected ahead of the cold front, particularly across the NW and north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the southern tip of Florida near 25N81W to 22N89W to 19N92.5W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the Yucatan Channel to the cold front. Elsewhere, scattered trade wind showers are near the ABC Islands. Isolated showers are near Puerto Rico and the waters south of Puerto Rico, north of 16N. Despite the weak showers, relatively dry air continues to dominate Caribbean Sea, with the notable exception of the NW Caribbean, marked by the approaching front. The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW Caribbean late today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba tonight into Thu morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected to continue in the south-central Caribbean tonight through Sat night, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N60W to 29N70W to the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula near 25N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and within 120 nm south of the front. A secondary developing cold front has been added to the map extending from a 1013 mb low near 33N74.5W to 30N77W to 28N80W. No significant convection is associated with this front. However, a recent ASCAT pass shows stronger WNW winds north of this front. To the east, a 1014 mb low is analyzed near 28N25W with a cold front extending from the low to 25N23W to 20N34W, stationary to 19N48W. A warm front extends NE from the low to 31N23W. Scattered moderate convection is observed with the low from 24N-30N between 20W-25W. Elsewhere from 23N-33N between 16W-26W, scattered showers are noted. A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N37W. The high extends its surface ridge axis to 26N51W to 25N66W. The cold front in the west Atlantic that extends from 32N60W to 25N81W will reach from 30N65W across the Bahamas to central Cuba tonight. Reinforcing cold air will support fresh N-NW winds behind the front through Thu morning. The front will stall and weaken Thu night through Sat. A developing low pressure system across the southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun. At that time, gale conditions are possible ahead of the front in the southerly flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen