000
AXNT20 KNHC 051121
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 08N13W to 
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N47W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate convection is present from 08N southward 
between 29W-45W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 22N92W to 
18N93W. A pre-frontal trough extends across southern Florida 
and the eastern Gulf waters along 24N and east of 90W. Scattered 
showers are noted along the front and trough.

Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to 
strong northerly flow across the basin today. Return flow will 
dominate the area by the end of the week ahead of the next cold 
front, which will move through northern portion of the basin this 
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air continues to dominate across the basin, with only low 
topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the 
basin affecting the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  
A 1021 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is 
leading to fresh to strong easterly trades, especially across the
central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of 
Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central 
Caribbean, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of 
Colombia. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the
northwest Caribbean late tonight, then stall and weaken from 
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Thursday.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 
27N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N76W to 26N80W. 
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm south of the front and 
trough. To the east, another cold front is over the eastern 
Atlantic, extending from a 1015 mb low centered near 31N22W. The 
front is from the low to 19N35W to 19N55W. Scattered showers are 
observed with the low. 

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 30N65W to 
Straits of Florida today. A reinforcing push of cold air will 
support fresh northerly winds behind the front this afternoon 
through Thursday morning. The front will reach from 28N65W to the 
SE Bahamas on Thursday, then stall and weaken Thursday night 
through Saturday. A developing low pressure system across the 
southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of 
northern Florida reaching the west Atlantic on Sunday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA