000 AXNT20 KNHC 042358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2356 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extending from near Fort Myers, Florida to the central Gulf near 23N90W to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N93W will move SE of the area by Wed afternoon. Strong high pres behind the front will support fresh to strong northerly flow behind the front, except minimal gale in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz. Expect NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots S of 21N W of 95W. Seas height will range from 6 to 10 feet. Expect scattered moderate convection along the cold front in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible the wind speeds and sea heights could be higher near the areas of moderate convection. Please read the High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W and 02N41W. Scattered convection is noted to the south near Africa from 02N to 06N between 09W-20W. Scattered moderate to numerous strong convection are present from 07N southward between 32W and 40W. To the south, scattered moderate convection is mainly 02N to 01N between 36W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning for today. A cold front passes through south central Florida near 26N82W to the NW of Lake Okeechobee and to 23N90W near the central Gulf of Mexico, and then it curves southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. A stationary front continues inland, to 20N98W in Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection are within 20 nm on either side of the line that runs from 24N89W in to 20N93W and 18N93W at the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Strong high pres behind the front will support fresh to strong northerly flow behind the front, except minimal gale in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz. Return flow will dominate by the end of the week ahead of the next cold front which will move through the basin this upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air continues to dominate across the basin, with only low topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed over from 05N46W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. A 1021 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central Caribbean Sea, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of Colombia. A cold front passing N of the area will cause the wind speeds to diminish a bit in the central Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Building high pressure following the front will allow fresh to strong winds to redevelop across the south central Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail E of the Lesser Antilles during most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida about 27N80W across the Lake Okeechobee, and beyond, toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 31N67W 29N71W, and over the northwest Bahamas from 27N75W to 26N79W. A second cold front is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N21W to 23N30W to 20N40W to 20N54W. Scattered showers are within 80 nm on either side of the line that runs from 32N21W beyond 27N24W. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The cold front will reach from 31N66W to SE Florida late tonight, and from 30N65W to Straits of Florida Wed morning. A reinforcing push of cold air will support fresh N-NW winds behind the front Wed afternoon through Thu morning. The front will reach from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas on Thu, then stall and weaken Thu night through Sat. The remnants of the front are expected to lift N Sat night and Sun as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico, entering the SW N Atlc Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres