000 AXNT20 KNHC 041742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is passing through 32N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida about 30 NM to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, to 24N90W near the central Gulf of Mexico, and curving southwestward to the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and curving inland northwestward to 21N98W. A stationary front continues inland even more, to 27N102W. The 12-hour forecast, from the 04/1200 UTC forecast, consists of: the cold front from 26N82W to 23N90W to 22N92W to 18.5N93W. Expect NW to N winds GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, S of 21N W of the cold front. ELSEWHERE NW of the cold front: S of 28N W of 85W N to NE WINDS 20 to 30 knots. Sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. Expect scattered rainshowers with thunder along the cold front in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the wind speeds and the sea heights may be higher near the areas of precipitation. Please read the High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W and 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N southward between 38W and 52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are mainly from 02N to 06N between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across Florida, about 30 NM to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, to 24N90W near the central Gulf of Mexico, and it curves southwestward to the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and then it curves inland northwestward to 21N98W. A stationary front continues inland even more, to 27N102W in Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 27N80W in SE Florida, to 26N84W 24N89W 21N92W and 18N94W at the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the GALE-FORCE winds that are expected in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico later tonight. The current cold front will reach from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche later today. Strong high pressure that is behind the front will induce fresh to strong northerly winds for much of the western and central Gulf of Mexico today, with winds reaching minimal gale force near Veracruz overnight. The front will extend from SE Florida to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then move SE of the area by late Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air prevails across most of the area, with only low topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin. High pressure to the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia. Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in clusters of broken low level and middle level clouds, across much of the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Trinidad, 0.05 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.03 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.01 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 74W in Colombia across southern sections of Panama, beyond the southernmost part of Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 11N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central Caribbean Sea, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of Colombia. A cold front passing N of the area will cause the wind speeds to diminish a bit in the central Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Building high pressure following the front will allow fresh to strong winds to redevelop across the south central Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail E of the Lesser Antilles during most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida about 30 NM to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, and beyond, toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 26N81W near Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to 29N75W, beyond 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean. A second cold front is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N23W to 24N30W 21N40W 20N45W, and 23N54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 28N26W beyond 32N24W. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The current cold front will reach from 31N66W to SE Florida tonight, and from 30N65W to Straits of Florida on Wednesday morning. A reinforcing push of cold air will support fresh N-NW winds behind the front from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The front will reach from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas on Thursday, and then stall and weaken from Thursday night through Saturday. The remnants of the front are expected to move N on Saturday night and Sunday, as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT