000 AXNT20 KNHC 040531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front currently extends from 29N83W to 21N97W. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico late tonight, and from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning early on Tuesday. Winds will reach gale-force near Veracruz by Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends over Africa reaching the east Atlantic waters near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 03N32W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ mainly west of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning expected within the next 24 hours. A cold front passes through northern Florida near 29N83W to 24N94W to 21N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the western portion of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 90W. A cold front will continue moving southeastward across the Gulf reaching from near Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico late tonight, and from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning early on Tuesday. With this, gale-force winds are expected near Veracruz by Tuesday night through early Wednesday. The front is forecast to extend from southern Florida to the south-central Gulf near 23N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night, and then move southeast of the area by Wednesday evening. High pressure in the wake of the front will slide eastward across the Gulf through early this weekend as the next cold front approaches. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air continues to dominate the basin, with only low topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin. A 1024 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia. Expect for the surface high to continue supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through late Tuesday. A cold front passing to the north of the area will weaken the pressure gradient allowing for winds to diminish over the central part of the Caribbean by mid-week. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring again fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Friday night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N79W to 30N81W with scattered moderate convection noted ahead of it mainly north of 28N and west of 70W. To the east, another cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing through 31N27W to 23N38W to 24N55W. Scattered showers are observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. High pressure over the central Atlantic will shift eastward through Wednesday in response to a cold front that is presently moving offshore the SE United States. The cold front will reach from near 31N73W to Melbourne by early Tuesday, from near 30N66W to southern Florida by Tuesday night, and from near 30N65W to the Straits of Florida on Wednesday morning. A second push of cold air will support fresh to locally strong winds behind the front through Thu morning. The cold front will reach from near 28N65W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early Thursday, and begin to weaken over the far southeastern waters through the weekend as it transitions into a trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA