000 AXNT20 KNHC 030534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico from 30N85W to a 1006 mb low near 25N96W. On Monday night, a reinforcing cold front will merge with this front, extending from central Florida to near Tampico by Tuesday night, and from Miami to Veracruz on Wednesday morning. Strong high pressure building behind this front will bring strong northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning early on Tuesday, with winds expected to reach gale-force near Veracruz on Tuesday night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSTAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastline of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N25W to 01N44W. A surface trough is analyzed along 48W from the Equator to 04N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 33W-41W and in the vicinity of the surface trough between 46W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front currently extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to a 1006 mb surface low near 25N96W. A line of moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front mainly north of 28N and east of 88W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds prevailing over most of the basin south of the front while light to gentle northeasterly winds prevail north of the front. Expect for the front to advance slowly through Monday morning. A reinforcing cold front will merge with this front by Monday night. The merged front will then extend from central Florida to Tampico Tuesday night and from Miami to Veracruz by mid week. Gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front near Veracruz. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air prevails across the basin, with little to no significant convective activity noted. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin from 13N-22N between 69W-89W. High pressure to the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will shift to the central Atlantic on Tuesday, supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds along the coast of Colombia are expected to be near gale-force on Monday. A front moving north of the area on Tuesday will allow for winds to diminish over the central portion of the basin. Strong high pressure building behind that front will tighten the gradient again and fresh to strong winds will resume along Colombia Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong thunderstorms with strong wind gusts have been occurring in the Atlantic waters off of Georgia and north Florida tonight. This activity is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence aloft. Numerous moderate convection is occurring north of 30N and west of 69W. To the east, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N38W to 27N58W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N35W to 22N55W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough and front. Farther east, a weakening upper-level trough to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands is enhancing shower activity north of 20N and east of 24W. A surface ridge will remain over the area east of the Bahamas through mid-week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will affect the waters north of 27N and west of 65W through Monday night as a cold front approaches the Georgia coast. The front will push southeast into the west Atlantic waters early on Tuesday and extend from 31N73W to Jupiter, Florida by 1200 UTC. By Wednesday morning, the front will extend from 31N65W to the southern tip of Andros Island. Strong winds ahead of the front will affect the waters north of 28N through Tuesday night. A second push of cold air will support fresh to locally strong winds across the northern waters on Wednesday night through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA