000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N26W to 03N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N and 240 nm S of the axis between 12W-25W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and within 210 nm N of the axis between 35W and the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... At 2100 UTC, a NNE-SSW oriented cold front extends through western Mississippi to the Gulf Coast of south-central Louisiana near 29.5N92W to 26N95W to 22N97W, curving westward into Mexico to 22N99W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front. A pre- frontal trough just east of the front extends from 29N90W to 26N94W as of 2100 UTC, and is accompanied by a S to NW wind shift. Another surface trough extends from 30N87W to 29N83W. At 2100 UTC, this trough is over the Florida Panhandle, north of the 1800 UTC position. Numerous moderate/scattered strong convection is seen north of 29N between 82W-90W. The heaviest thunderstorms are over the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters of the Florida Panhandle north of 29.5N, where gusty winds are occurring, and where a tornado watch was in effect this afternoon. These strong to severe thunderstorms are being enhanced by an upper-level jet streak over the southern United States. Elsewhere, the Gulf of Mexico is free of significant convection. The remainder of the Gulf is under moderate to fresh S to SE flow between high pressure over the W Atlantic and the cold front over the NW Gulf. The cold front that is currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will stall from Pensacola Florida to El Mezquital, Mexico on Sunday morning, and then move slowly northward through Monday. A stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast on Monday and merge with the weaker front over the Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. The front will then reach from central Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico Tuesday morning and from the southern tip of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. Strong high pressure building southward behind the front will induce strong northerly winds, with near-gale to gale-force winds likely near Veracruz on Tuesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air over the Caribbean Sea, as upper-level anticyclonic flow dominates the region. High pressure to the north of the region over the western Atlantic is inducing fresh easterly trades across the basin, except locally strong near the coast of Colombia. While no strong or moderate convection is noted across the basin, isolated trade wind showers are observed near and just south of Puerto Rico, a second area south of 13.5N between 60W-71W, and a third area south of Cuba between Grand Cayman and the Isle of Youth. High pressure N-NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday. Expect strong to near-gale force winds along the coast of Colombia on Monday night, but only fresh-to-strong other days at night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Monday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Moist southerly flow associated with a shortwave trough is producing strong to severe thunderstorms across northern Florida, southern Georgia and southern Alabama. Scattered moderate convection associated with this system extends over the western Atlantic, mainly N of 29N W of 76W. Scattered showers are elsewhere N of 26N W of 72W. A 1023 mb high is centered near 30N67W. Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast area near 32N37W and extends to 25N48W to 22N55W. A stationary front continues from 22N55W to the SE Bahamas near 21N73W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the front N of 25N E of 46W. Elsewhere along the front, isolated showers are possible. An upper-level low is centered near 19N35W, leading to scattered moderate convection from 16N-22N between 29W-33W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere from 10N-27N between 21W-35W. Northeast of this feature, a surface ridge dominates near the Canary Islands, with relatively quiet weather N of 27N E of 32W. Seas of 11-14 ft will continue tonight N of 26N E of 50W due to NW swell from a system over the far north-central Atlantic. The stationary front from 21N60W to the SE Bahamas will continue to weaken and become diffuse tonight. A 1023 mb high pressure center near 30N66W will drift eastward through Sunday. Strong southerly winds will continue tonight W of 75W and N of the northwest Bahamas ahead of a cold front that is expected to push off the Georgia coast on Monday. The front will extend from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Tuesday, and from 31N67W to Andros Island on Wednesday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen