000 AXNT20 KNHC 301154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EST Fri Nov 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains extends from west Africa near 06N10W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N34W to the coast of South America near 03N50W. Scattered showers cover the area from the Equator to 17N between 19W-39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed near the west coast of Africa 180 nm south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to the ITCZ between 39W- 49W. the west coast of Africa and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid and upper westerly flow prevails across the entire area with broken to overcast skies. Water vapor loops and TPW loops indicate that much of the moisture and associated mid to upper level cloud cover over the Gulf is originating from the tropical east Pacific. This is supporting possible scattered rainshowers across the entire area. A 1023 mb surface high is centered over northeast Florida near 29N80W. Scatterometer pass over the Gulf shows fresh southerly return flow over most of the West Gulf from the Yucatan peninsula extending to 28N and west of 88W. The high pressure will slide eastward into the W Atlantic early today. Southerly winds over the western Gulf will gradually spread eastward across the entire Gulf by Saturday. A cold front moving off the Texas coast Sat morning will stall from Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico Sun morning, then lift slowly northward as a warm front Sun evening. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast on Monday. High pressure building southward behind the front may induce gale force winds near Veracruz Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to 17N78W. A surface trough extends from 17N79W to 20N86W. Scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. Scattered showers are also seen in the proximity of the stationary front. In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers are noted near the coast of Panama south of 10N and west of 81W, in association with the monsoon trough. The eastern and central Caribbean are relatively quiet with little significant shower activity noted. The remnants of a nearly stationary front over Hispaniola and Jamaica will lift northward into Cuba today. Fresh trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the week, with the strongest winds mainly at night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N46W in the central Atlantic Ocean, to 25N56W to Hispaniola near 19N69W and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 180 nm E of the cold front from 25N northward. From 25N-31N, scattered showers are noted between 40W and the front. Scattered showers are also within 150 nm either side of a line. Mid to upper level westerly wind flow covers this area. Over the NE part of the area, scattered showers are noted north of a line from 25N45W to 31N35W. A cold front enters the area near 32N16W and extends to 30N23W. A 1024 mb surface high is centered near 28N28W. Seas of 10 to 15 ft, mostly due to a high NW swell, will affect the forecast area tonight mainly N of 26N between 43W-67W. On Friday, seas of this magnitude will be confined to areas mainly N of 27N between 36W-64W. A cold front extending from 22N65W to Hispaniola will weaken and stall this evening. High pressure behind the front will induce fresh trade winds south of 23N. S to SW winds over waters north of 27N will increase tonight and Saturday ahead of the next cold front. The combined area of swell associated with a large low in the central Atlantic and fresh trade winds in the deep tropics will dominate the forecast waters through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres