000 AXNT20 KNHC 290628 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean... A cold front extends from 31N57W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W and into the northwest Caribbean 18N82W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted 180 nm to the east of the front north of 26N between 50W-60W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds behind the front mainly north of 29N between 60W-72W. Seas in this area are ranging between 12-18 ft. Expect for these conditions to subside tonight by 06Z. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 20W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air over Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west- central Cuba. A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N88W. Scatterometer depicts a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevailing across the basin. Upper level diffluence is noted spread across the western Gulf of Mexico associated with trough over the west coast The 1022 mb surface high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle will move eastward across northern Florida on Thu. As the high pressure slides eastward, southerly return flow already in place over the western Gulf will spread across entire Gulf by Fri. The pressure gradient will tighten across the region between the high pressure and lower pressure over Texas, resulting in fresh to strong southerly winds first across the eastern half of the Gulf late Thu through Fri morning, and across the eastern half of the Gulf Fri afternoon and Fri night. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat morning and meander across the NW Gulf through Sun before reinforcing high pressure forces the front SE Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across eastern Cuba near 20N75W then continues through 18N85W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 18N87W. Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air over Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west- central Cuba. When this pattern is observed, a significant decrease in temperature is likely across Havana-Matanzas Plains, with low temperatures dropping to or below 50 deg F. Drier air prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 15N between 72W-78W, where fresh winds are noted. The front will remains nearly stationary along 19N-20N on Thu while gradually weakening. The remnants of the front will then lift N across the NW Caribbean Thu night through late Fri. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades will persist across the south- central Caribbean the remainder of the week, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Long period NW swell will reach the waters E of the Leeward Islands on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for information about the front over the west Atlantic and the Gale Warning in effect for the area. To the east, a surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from 28N33W to 25N42W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A cold front extending from 31N53W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W will move SE, and reach from 25N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning, then from 24N60W to eastern Cuba on Thu night. High pres behind the front will slide ENE into the W Atlc early Fri as the front becomes nearly stationary from 22N60W to the Windward passage and gradually dissipates through Sat. Long period N to NW swell will dominate the forecast waters through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres